Thank you for showing upScientific Forum for the Private Sector and Academe

What each presenter put on the record

Five inputs, transcribed from the decks

• 

  Dr. Charina Lyn Amedo-Repollo

  Assistant Professor & Deputy Director · UP Marine Science Institute

  Session 1 panel

  • 2025 set record Philippine sea-surface temperatures with no El Niño at all — the baseline has already moved.
  • The extreme warming arrived at the end of the 2023–24 El Niño (peaking June 2024, past 2015–16): marine heat outlives the event driving it.
  • Coral bleaching exceeded 50% in Iba, Bolinao and Anda; Porites was least susceptible, Fungids most.
  • Eight Spotter Buoys now stream real-time wave, wind, temperature and pressure data.
  • Seven takeaways: monitor (one dashboard spanning ENSO, rainfall, air temperature, SST, marine heat waves and degree-heating weeks); anticipate compound hazards but keep flood and surge readiness — El Niño ≠ no floods; protect water; protect people; protect the coast; move fisheries from response to early action; use El Niño as a city stress test.
• 

  Dr. Rosa T. Perez

  Senior Research Fellow · Manila Observatory

  Session 2 lecture

  Session 3 panel

  • 21 of 180 barangays (~97,000 people) are storm-surge exposed; 72 barangays carry high flood risk; the city leans on groundwater.
  • Five El Niño water crises in 19 years — 2007, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2024 — each drawing a “state of imminent water crisis” declaration.
  • ₱2.9B crop damage across Western Visayas in 2024 (₱1.5B the province’s share); 924 heat-related cases in five weeks of 2026.
  • Non-climate amplifiers: ~9 mm/yr land subsidence in Mandurriao and La Paz, Maasin watershed degradation, drainage gaps, informal coastal settlements.
  • Six priorities: water security as critical infrastructure; climate in land-use and coastal planning; urban cooling and green infrastructure; anticipatory action and early warning; protect the most exposed communities; close the policy–implementation gap.
  • Mean annual rainfall barely moves (~5% decrease signal) — the danger is when water arrives, not how much falls in a year.
  • Wet and dry extremes intensify in the same place: max 1-day rainfall projected +20–25% across parts of Visayas by late century while Consecutive Dry Days climb.
  • Iloilo City CDRA SPI: SPI3 and SPI12 already reach severity 2 in the 1986–2005 baseline; 4 under RCP4.5 and 4–5 under RCP8.5 by late century.
  • Manage extremes, not averages: exposure reduction and setbacks, nature-based and hybrid solutions, conjunctive surface+groundwater supply, reduced non-revenue water.
  • Six decision principles: plan for ranges not points; no-regret actions first; keep options open against irreversible high-exposure development; integrate climate into investment; monitor and update; address equity explicitly.
  • Blue-economy levers for Iloilo: port and logistics modernisation, fisheries and aquaculture, coastal tourism and gastronomy (UNESCO Creative City of Gastronomy).
  • The trade-off to name out loud: port expansion, reclamation and riverside development can erase flood buffering, fishery nurseries and amenity value.
  • Water security is the binding constraint; energy reliability and cost come next.
  • Value chains must strengthen, not displace, municipal fisherfolk, small vendors and informal livelihoods.
  • Role split stated explicitly — private sector (water-efficient operations, watershed payments and mangrove protection, circular waste, cold chains, TNFD-aligned nature-risk reporting) and academe (ecosystem-service valuation, FWE nexus modelling, co-produced research, talent, evaluation, monitoring).
• 

  Capt. Jorge Aborde

  Safety Officer and DRRM Point Person · John B. Lacson Foundation Maritime University

  Session 3 panel

  • The food–water–energy nexus cascades: water drives food production, energy drives water supply and logistics, transport drives access to food and fuel.
  • “A maritime university does not operate in isolation… Our campus boundaries do not define the limits of our responsibility.”
  • Four layers of shared resilience: campus → community → city → maritime commerce.
  • The university contributes human capital, knowledge and environmental stewardship — “competent seafarers and responsible stewards of the ocean”.
• 

  Engr. Liza Silerio

  Vice President, Corporate Compliance Group · SM Supermalls

  Session 3 panel

  • Environmental programme already running: water recycling, rainwater catchment basins, stormwater attenuation, smart fixtures, R-D-C segregation and MRF, watershed protection, coastal cleanups.
  • Decarbonising malls and securing grid stability: skylights and LEDs, building-management systems on air-conditioning, motion-sensor escalators, chiller setpoint tuning, rooftop solar at Iloilo/Taytay/North EDSA/Fairview, EV charging, exterior insulation — BEE and renewables as partial grid independence.
  • Resilience as business continuity: earthquake drills with employees, tenants and customers; disaster-resilient mall design.
  • Whole-of-society coordination: SM Business Continuity Planning and CARE Desk, ARISE and NRC meetings with Iloilo City, Adopt-a-City, Trash to Cash, e-waste collection, International Coastal Cleanup, MSME empowerment.
• FL

  Engr. Ferdinand L. Rubin Jr.

  PAGASA Regional Services Division · DOST-PAGASA, Iloilo Complex Station

  PAGASA briefing

  • El Niño Advisory #4 (7 September 2026): expected to strengthen to a very strong state before the end of 2026 and persist at least into the first half of 2027.
  • Region VI including Iloilo City: below- to way-below-normal rainfall November 2026 – March 2027, with possible dry spell to drought by end of January–February–March 2027.
  • CLIRAM SSP 5-8.5: drying trend in April, May, August and September; wetting October–January; warming in every month by 2100.
  • The warning chain runs PAGASA → NDRRMC/OP → OCD → DRRMCs/RDRRMCs/PDRRMCs → LGU units, local stations and the public.
  • Preparing for El Niño builds immediate resilience and prepares for long-term climate change; integrated water and urban adaptation is essential for Western Visayas.